Wednesday, November 03, 2004

How we lost an election... 

A relatively typical conversation I saw online:

A: Here is the secret reason GW wins. 10 States have DOMA on the ballot. NOBODY is talking about this in public, but every REAL Christian Church is mobilized. Is yours?

B: Yes! It is very exciting around here, and even more so for me because as a petition-circulator I helped get this on the ballot in Ohio!
Our church has been registering voters and educating people thru preaching as well as classes and satellite broadcasts of other Christian leaders. Same things are happening at other conservative Bible-teaching churches in this area. All the believers I talk to are really pumped to go out and vote Nov. 2.
Don't you just love a nice big groundswell from the Right!?! :)

The groundswell of fundamentalist voters will have been huge across the country because of this, not just in the DOMA states. So even the uncounted votes left in Ohio might not be to help Kerry win, assuming a correlation between how voters vote on this issue and the candidates' positions on it (Bush pro-amendments, Kerry anti).

These are the states which had votes on marriage amendment bills included in their presidential polling last night:

Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah.

Early results show all eleven have passed the bill, defining marriage as between a man and a woman. This hasn't been key in the presidential election in Michigan and Oregon, which remain Democrat, but it could be key in Ohio.

In general, I think feeling on this issue, as well as the abortion issue, could be a major, if not the determining, factor in why the large turn-out did not favour Kerry. You don't turn out in such high numbers to keep the status quo unless there's something really scary about the newcomer. And since Kerry's differences on Iraq and the economy probably aren't scary enough to get out that many extra, I'd say the inclusion of these 'social problems' in the mix was more important.

And why is that depressing (apart from the suggestion that America hates us)? Well, there could be a 'moderate' backlash against supporting gay rights movements in the future, particularly around election times. The boom time for us (hate crimes laws, marriage laws etc. all over the world) may be about to slump.

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